PAKISTAN: “Prelude to Revolution”
By Bhabani Sen Gupta
When the national election mode sets in once in five years, Indian
democracy retreats to a period of abstinence. Governments both at the Centre
And in the states suspend social activism in order to avoid frowns on the vigilant brows of the Election Commission The restraint shown by Government in responding to the
rush of a much-delayed. Much-hoped-for democratic explosion in Pakistan , however,
is more of a product of inadequate knowledge and understanding of what’s happening
across the western borders than restraint imposed by the Election Commission.
The visit of the two topmost intelligence officials of the U.S. to New Delhi,
their meetings with the intelligent chiefs of Indian government as well as the Home
Minister may prove to be embarrassing. Apart from underplaying the significance of
the visits, the Government’s media-relations managers in the PMO asked the media
leaders to make it clear in their reports that the visits had nothing to do with India-US
relations except the normal, expected pursuit of the post –Mumbai terrorist attack
offer by Washington to share with India all crucial intelligence about Taliban activities
in Pakistan.
The Times of India report on March 20 that CIA chief Leon Panetta discussed
“India’s role in Afghanistan” with Home Minister Chidambaram, and that “Wary of
Pak, US woos India” seems to be totally misleading. Since Holbroke’s brief visit to
New Delhi after his “look and listen” trips to Afghanistan and Pakistan, India has not
Been in the loop of Obama’s resurge strategy for Afghanistan, which is expected to
Be unfolded early April. In any case, only a suitably designated cabinet member of the
New American president will be competent to discuss with India Obama’s Afpak policies. Hilary Clinton would have been the most appropriate cabinet member for talks, but she skipped New Delhi in her first two tours outside the US as secretary of state.
There is some resentment in New Delhi and in the well-muscled American lobby in
India, especially in the media, that India has not figured at the top level of countries
Included I Obama’s search for New Diplomacy designed for building an inclusive world
Order that should have died with the end of the cold war in 1991-92.
Obama is not exactly wooing India, but he, or his administration may well be worried about Pakistan. There are signs of some kind of ‘colour revolution’ breaking out
in Pakistan. Even The New York Times has been tardy in reporting the events of the last
week or so, especially since president Zardari was compelled to reinstate to the office of
Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammed Choudhuri who had been summarily sacked by General
Musharaff two years ago when he was still president. Jane Perlez in her report from Lahore that was printed in the Times on March 20 laboured to be as implicit as she could in saying that there was rebellions both at the top and at the bottom of the police
Force in Punjab on March 15 against the authority of the Federal Government to keep
Nawaz Shariff in house arrest and use force to prevent a mass protest rally in Islamabad
against the authority of the president who had ordered both actions by the police in Lahore.
Police officers refused to enforce Nawas Shariff’s detention at his house. Policemen refused to stop people from building a massive march to Islamabad to
Protest the confinement of Shariff, the dismissal of his younger brother Shabaz Shariff
As chief minister and placing Punjab under central control, disperse by force the Long
March to Islamabad ( the distance between Lahore and the national capital is 200 miles),
And Zardari’s refusl to reinstate Chaudhury.
Whatever reports appeared in the media made it clear that Obama and his advisers
On AfPak scrambled together to prevent a ‘colour revolution’ to prevail in Pakistan.
It also seems clear that the Army leaders feared a revolt breaking out in the ranks and
Junior officers against a crackdown ordered by Asif Ali Zardari whose rating among the
People of Pakistan was almost at zero level. Hilary Clinton phoned Zardari and Nawaz
Shariff urging them to get back together to save Pakistan as well as Afghanistan from
A Taliban takeover.
Zardari seemed to have handed over the government to prime minister Yousaf
Ali Gilani who moved fast to reinstate the dismissed chief justice and remove the legal
Barrier to the Sharrf brothers to accept elected office, and thus defuse the on-rush of
Popular will get the better of the military-political complex that has ruled Pakistan since
the 1950s and made it virtually a vassal of the United States.
Earlier in March, General Kayani, Pakistan’s army chief, who had served as chie
Chief of the ISI was ib Washington for five days holding crucial talks with defence secretary Gates, special representative Holbroke, and a host of officials covering
Major aspects of Pakistan-US relations during the Obama years in the White House.
The talks resolted I broad agreements on a large package of American aid to Pakistan
---$ 5 billion in military hardware, and $1 billion for five consecutive years as development assistance. In return, Kayani committed that the Army would refrain
from staging a coup, and serve whoever the people elected to power
The turn of events in March should encourage the Obama administration to
go ahead with Holbroke’s reportedly regional approach to resolve the Afghan issue.
Mr Obama seems to have realized that the key to resolving the Afghan issue lies in
stabilizing the shaky democratic foundation of Pakistan’s political frame. This is
one of the points the Indian government has made with the Obama administration.
India was a partner of the post-colonial settlement in the subcontinent that gave
birth to Pakistan. However, the birthmark of enmity between India and Pakistan
has faded a lot at this 60-year-old remove from the time of partition, even though
it continues to be the convenient cry for politicians and the media. It has lost a lot
of purchase with the people of both countries.
However, the Obama administration seem to be wary of a Pakistan in which
The will of the people prevail. Because, the vast majority of the Pakistani people,
Especially the expanded middle class and the clutch of independent television channels
seem to be firmly against making America’s war in Afghanistan their own war. This
is the great stumbling block that Obama’s Afghan strategy faces in a democratic Pakistan.
General Kayani evidently assured the Obama administration that Pakistan’s
Armed forces would partner a much larger military onslaught on the AfPak Taliban forces both on Pakistan and Afghan territory., and that Americans would be free to
Attack Taliban forces including their suspected hideouts in the two Western provinces
Of Pakistan as well as in the vast rugged borderlands between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Indeed, American drones dropped lethal bombs freely on Baluch, NWFP and border
Taliban sites inflicting civilian casualties in the last fortnight.
But this is not acceptable to the bulk of the middle class Pakistanis as well as the
Vocal Pakistani diaspora in the U.S. and Britain.
This stern roadblock to Obama’s AfPak strategy became sharply clear in
The assertion of people’s will in Pakistan in the ides of March. Uncle Sam who
has been generous to Pakistan for six decades, may well turn back and cry out,
Thou, too, Pakistan!!
` Nawaz Shariff gave an interview to Geo TV from his car when on March 16,
after breaking out of his ‘house arrest, he was being driven towards Islamabad.
He spoke into the microphone, “this is a prelude to revolution.”
Nawas Shariff, a big landlord and a political leader not particularly known
For moral scruples, is not a man of revolution. If anything, he is against radical
Change. But often in history a role is thrust on political leaders unfit and unready
for creating history.
On March 21, CNN ran healines to a newscast. One of them was The Battle
For Pakistan. Indeed, the clap of words was well taken. But what Pakistan is going
Thorugh was not just one battle, but three.
First, there is a battle between America and the Taliban groups united by
Fundamentalist Islam and their strong, old, enduring linkages with the Taliban in]
Afghanistan. Secondly, there is a battle in Pakistan between the collective strength
of the Taliban and an expanding middle class increasingly committed to parliamentary
democracy and its allies in the urban working classa and segments of the rural poor.
The third battle or battles are among the competing centres of power that plague
Pakistan in its tortunous transition from military rule to its own type of democracy
And rule of law.
As these battles rage, it is getting increasingly clear that the middle class in Pakistan is getting out of the State’s birthsuit of hostility towards India. In India too
Pakistan is no longer the ‘natural’ enemy. Not at any rate for the political class as its
Diverse constituents jostle among them selves to assemble a coalition that can govern
India after each election amidst a systemic meltdown of the post-colonial party system.
The media of course continues to stir embers of the flames the flames of
India’s historical religious divides nourished and used by the colonial power After
the terror onslaught on Mumbai on November 11, the media put a huge pressure
on the Government to strike at some Taliban centres in Pakistan. It did not work.
New Delhi kept its cool. And it was rewarded by a growing realization that Terror
and Taliban posed a threat to both Pakistan and India and indeed to Afghanistan,
a threat that challenges the world community to work together to strike it out of
history.///
By Bhabani Sen Gupta
When the national election mode sets in once in five years, Indian
democracy retreats to a period of abstinence. Governments both at the Centre
And in the states suspend social activism in order to avoid frowns on the vigilant brows of the Election Commission The restraint shown by Government in responding to the
rush of a much-delayed. Much-hoped-for democratic explosion in Pakistan , however,
is more of a product of inadequate knowledge and understanding of what’s happening
across the western borders than restraint imposed by the Election Commission.
The visit of the two topmost intelligence officials of the U.S. to New Delhi,
their meetings with the intelligent chiefs of Indian government as well as the Home
Minister may prove to be embarrassing. Apart from underplaying the significance of
the visits, the Government’s media-relations managers in the PMO asked the media
leaders to make it clear in their reports that the visits had nothing to do with India-US
relations except the normal, expected pursuit of the post –Mumbai terrorist attack
offer by Washington to share with India all crucial intelligence about Taliban activities
in Pakistan.
The Times of India report on March 20 that CIA chief Leon Panetta discussed
“India’s role in Afghanistan” with Home Minister Chidambaram, and that “Wary of
Pak, US woos India” seems to be totally misleading. Since Holbroke’s brief visit to
New Delhi after his “look and listen” trips to Afghanistan and Pakistan, India has not
Been in the loop of Obama’s resurge strategy for Afghanistan, which is expected to
Be unfolded early April. In any case, only a suitably designated cabinet member of the
New American president will be competent to discuss with India Obama’s Afpak policies. Hilary Clinton would have been the most appropriate cabinet member for talks, but she skipped New Delhi in her first two tours outside the US as secretary of state.
There is some resentment in New Delhi and in the well-muscled American lobby in
India, especially in the media, that India has not figured at the top level of countries
Included I Obama’s search for New Diplomacy designed for building an inclusive world
Order that should have died with the end of the cold war in 1991-92.
Obama is not exactly wooing India, but he, or his administration may well be worried about Pakistan. There are signs of some kind of ‘colour revolution’ breaking out
in Pakistan. Even The New York Times has been tardy in reporting the events of the last
week or so, especially since president Zardari was compelled to reinstate to the office of
Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammed Choudhuri who had been summarily sacked by General
Musharaff two years ago when he was still president. Jane Perlez in her report from Lahore that was printed in the Times on March 20 laboured to be as implicit as she could in saying that there was rebellions both at the top and at the bottom of the police
Force in Punjab on March 15 against the authority of the Federal Government to keep
Nawaz Shariff in house arrest and use force to prevent a mass protest rally in Islamabad
against the authority of the president who had ordered both actions by the police in Lahore.
Police officers refused to enforce Nawas Shariff’s detention at his house. Policemen refused to stop people from building a massive march to Islamabad to
Protest the confinement of Shariff, the dismissal of his younger brother Shabaz Shariff
As chief minister and placing Punjab under central control, disperse by force the Long
March to Islamabad ( the distance between Lahore and the national capital is 200 miles),
And Zardari’s refusl to reinstate Chaudhury.
Whatever reports appeared in the media made it clear that Obama and his advisers
On AfPak scrambled together to prevent a ‘colour revolution’ to prevail in Pakistan.
It also seems clear that the Army leaders feared a revolt breaking out in the ranks and
Junior officers against a crackdown ordered by Asif Ali Zardari whose rating among the
People of Pakistan was almost at zero level. Hilary Clinton phoned Zardari and Nawaz
Shariff urging them to get back together to save Pakistan as well as Afghanistan from
A Taliban takeover.
Zardari seemed to have handed over the government to prime minister Yousaf
Ali Gilani who moved fast to reinstate the dismissed chief justice and remove the legal
Barrier to the Sharrf brothers to accept elected office, and thus defuse the on-rush of
Popular will get the better of the military-political complex that has ruled Pakistan since
the 1950s and made it virtually a vassal of the United States.
Earlier in March, General Kayani, Pakistan’s army chief, who had served as chie
Chief of the ISI was ib Washington for five days holding crucial talks with defence secretary Gates, special representative Holbroke, and a host of officials covering
Major aspects of Pakistan-US relations during the Obama years in the White House.
The talks resolted I broad agreements on a large package of American aid to Pakistan
---$ 5 billion in military hardware, and $1 billion for five consecutive years as development assistance. In return, Kayani committed that the Army would refrain
from staging a coup, and serve whoever the people elected to power
The turn of events in March should encourage the Obama administration to
go ahead with Holbroke’s reportedly regional approach to resolve the Afghan issue.
Mr Obama seems to have realized that the key to resolving the Afghan issue lies in
stabilizing the shaky democratic foundation of Pakistan’s political frame. This is
one of the points the Indian government has made with the Obama administration.
India was a partner of the post-colonial settlement in the subcontinent that gave
birth to Pakistan. However, the birthmark of enmity between India and Pakistan
has faded a lot at this 60-year-old remove from the time of partition, even though
it continues to be the convenient cry for politicians and the media. It has lost a lot
of purchase with the people of both countries.
However, the Obama administration seem to be wary of a Pakistan in which
The will of the people prevail. Because, the vast majority of the Pakistani people,
Especially the expanded middle class and the clutch of independent television channels
seem to be firmly against making America’s war in Afghanistan their own war. This
is the great stumbling block that Obama’s Afghan strategy faces in a democratic Pakistan.
General Kayani evidently assured the Obama administration that Pakistan’s
Armed forces would partner a much larger military onslaught on the AfPak Taliban forces both on Pakistan and Afghan territory., and that Americans would be free to
Attack Taliban forces including their suspected hideouts in the two Western provinces
Of Pakistan as well as in the vast rugged borderlands between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Indeed, American drones dropped lethal bombs freely on Baluch, NWFP and border
Taliban sites inflicting civilian casualties in the last fortnight.
But this is not acceptable to the bulk of the middle class Pakistanis as well as the
Vocal Pakistani diaspora in the U.S. and Britain.
This stern roadblock to Obama’s AfPak strategy became sharply clear in
The assertion of people’s will in Pakistan in the ides of March. Uncle Sam who
has been generous to Pakistan for six decades, may well turn back and cry out,
Thou, too, Pakistan!!
` Nawaz Shariff gave an interview to Geo TV from his car when on March 16,
after breaking out of his ‘house arrest, he was being driven towards Islamabad.
He spoke into the microphone, “this is a prelude to revolution.”
Nawas Shariff, a big landlord and a political leader not particularly known
For moral scruples, is not a man of revolution. If anything, he is against radical
Change. But often in history a role is thrust on political leaders unfit and unready
for creating history.
On March 21, CNN ran healines to a newscast. One of them was The Battle
For Pakistan. Indeed, the clap of words was well taken. But what Pakistan is going
Thorugh was not just one battle, but three.
First, there is a battle between America and the Taliban groups united by
Fundamentalist Islam and their strong, old, enduring linkages with the Taliban in]
Afghanistan. Secondly, there is a battle in Pakistan between the collective strength
of the Taliban and an expanding middle class increasingly committed to parliamentary
democracy and its allies in the urban working classa and segments of the rural poor.
The third battle or battles are among the competing centres of power that plague
Pakistan in its tortunous transition from military rule to its own type of democracy
And rule of law.
As these battles rage, it is getting increasingly clear that the middle class in Pakistan is getting out of the State’s birthsuit of hostility towards India. In India too
Pakistan is no longer the ‘natural’ enemy. Not at any rate for the political class as its
Diverse constituents jostle among them selves to assemble a coalition that can govern
India after each election amidst a systemic meltdown of the post-colonial party system.
The media of course continues to stir embers of the flames the flames of
India’s historical religious divides nourished and used by the colonial power After
the terror onslaught on Mumbai on November 11, the media put a huge pressure
on the Government to strike at some Taliban centres in Pakistan. It did not work.
New Delhi kept its cool. And it was rewarded by a growing realization that Terror
and Taliban posed a threat to both Pakistan and India and indeed to Afghanistan,
a threat that challenges the world community to work together to strike it out of
history.///
No comments:
Post a Comment